Following news that 60% of young adults favour legalised abortion, Paddy Power have opened a book on when an abortion referendum might take place.
The bookie’s odds suggest no referendum is imminent with 2015 or later the odds on 2/5 favourite and 2014 the next most likely at 4/1.
Whenever a referendum does take place, Paddy Power consider it more likely that it will be passed at 4/6 than fail at 11/10.
However, with many other topical issues requiring a referendum for action, it is an unlikely 16/1 that abortion is the next referendum put to the people. The most popular idea which has already been put forward by a Dail Committee is a referendum on children’s rights and is 10/11 favourite to be the next.
Judges pay is also very topical with many unimpressed that wage cuts haven’t been voluntarily forthcoming from some. A referendum on Judges pay is 6/4 to be next put to the people, with Enda Kenny’s infamous abolition of the Senate rated a 12/1 shot.
Paddy Power said
The results of this survey have thrown a cat among the pigeons but it’s likely that abortion won’t be the next referendum we’ll vote on
When will a Referendum on Abortion take place?
33/1 2010
18/1 2011
10/1 2012
7/1 2013
4/1 2014
2/5 2015 or Later
Next Referendum on Abortion
4/6 Passed
11/10 Fail
Next Irish Referendum
10/11 Children’s Rights
6/4 Judges Pay
8/1 Electoral Reform
12/1 Abolition of the Senate
16/1 Abortion
20/1 Gay Marriage
33/1 Scrapping the Euro
50/1 Death Penalty
50/1 United Ireland
